Winthrop/YouGov Survey Finds Trump Approval Ratings Continuing to Fall
Greg Wilson/Anderson Observer
Donald Trump’s national approval rating has drifted into the mid-thirties, according to a recent Winthrop/YouGov survey, suggesting his unpopularity is not a momentary wobble but a settled estrangement between a president and much of the country. Nearly seven in ten independents disapprove of the way he is doing his job—an especially ominous number for a party that will need ambivalent voters simply to break even in November.
Scott Huffmon, the director of the Winthrop Poll, is blunt about what this means for the fall. Approval ratings at these levels, if they hold, rarely bode well for the president’s party. The unusually sharp disapproval among independents, Huffmon says, points toward a potential Democratic strategy: a relentless turnout operation aimed at people who may not love Democrats but are prepared to punish Republicans. The catch is that voters who are voting against, rather than for, are notoriously hard to mobilize and a standard get‑out‑the‑vote effort may not be enough.
When respondents were asked how Trump is handling the economy, inflation, immigration, the conflict with Iran, and foreign policy in general, majorities disapproved of his performance on every front. Even within the Republican Party, where loyalty has long been the coin of the realm, there are hairline cracks. About a quarter of Republicans disapprove of his handling of Iran—three times the share who disapprove of his approach to immigration. Huffmon sees, in that discrepancy, the outline of competing instincts on the right: an “America First” wing that thrills to hardline immigration policies but took Trump at his word when he said, in his 2024 victory speech, that he was “not going to start a war.”
Many of those voters appear dismayed by the war in Iran. That displeasure, however, is unlikely to lead them to abandon the party so long as other issues, especially immigration, keep them in Trump’s column. Among Republicans, 91 percent approve of his handling of immigration.
On the economy, the usual partisan mirror effect is particularly stark. Sixty‑four percent of Americans say the economy is fairly bad or very bad. Two‑thirds of Republicans, however, describe it as very or fairly good; only nine percent of Democrats agree. Expectations for the future follow a similar pattern. Just 27 percent of Americans think the economy will be better a year from now, but nearly six in ten Republicans are optimistic, compared with only 12 percent of independents and 7 percent of Democrats. Behind those abstractions are more tangible pressures: majorities report difficulty affording groceries, health care, and housing.
If such strain continues into November, Republicans—who currently control the Senate, the House, and the White House—will struggle to explain why voters should expect a different outcome from the same management team.
The Epstein case, improbably, remains lodged near the center of the public’s imagination. Sixty‑three per cent of Americans say they have been following news of the Epstein files. Two‑thirds believe the government is hiding evidence. Half of all respondents believe Trump was involved in Epstein’s crimes, but that apparent consensus is an illusion of averaging: only 9 percent of Republicans say so, compared with 87 per cent of Democrats. More striking is the broader skepticism about justice. Just one in five Americans believes that everyone involved will be thoroughly investigated. Nearly 60 percent of Trump’s own base doubts that justice will be carried out. As they survey notes, the Epstein files “aren’t going anywhere,” even as voters worry about the economy and the war. The result is another layer of distrust pressing on a president whose party is already fighting on multiple fronts, including the redistricting battles that Republicans initiated in hopes of preserving their House majority.
On race, the divisions are as deep as they are familiar. Seven in ten Democrats say too little attention is paid to racial issues; only 13 percent of Republicans agree. Contrary to stereotype, there is no significant difference between Southerners and non‑Southerners on whether the country pays too much, too little, or the right amount of attention to race. The sharper contrast emerges when the focus narrows to white respondents. Among Americans overall, pluralities in both regions say too little attention is paid to racial issues. Among whites alone, that plurality flips to “too much attention.” Huffmon, echoing the political scientist V. O. Key’s 1949 observation that Southern politics revolves around the position of African Americans, suggests that the idea of a “post‑racial” America has always been more slogan than reality. The current controversies over diversity, equity, and inclusion programs only make visible arguments that never really went away; they merely went underground for a time.
Religious identity now functions as another axis of political sorting. Nearly four times as many Republicans as Democrats say the government should declare America a Christian nation. More than three times as many Republicans embrace a kind of religious exceptionalism, believing that the United States holds a special place in God’s plan. Even here, though, the lines are not entirely clean. Most Republicans still support the separation of church and state, though at rates far below those of Democrats. There is a 35‑point gap between the parties on whether the nation’s founding documents were “divinely inspired.” The question of who counts as “truly American” has become, in Huffmon’s phrase, a partisan religious battle: 56 per cent of Republicans say being Christian is an important part of being truly American, compared with 17 percent of Democrats. Article VI of the Constitution forbids religious tests for officeholders; Americans, it seems, are increasingly divided on whether there should be one for belonging itself.
Trust in democratic values—freedom of the press, free elections, equality under the law—has similarly fractured along party lines. In mid‑decade gerrymandering, there is broad opposition, but the intensity differs: two‑thirds of Democrats oppose it, compared with half of Republicans. When asked whether a greater mix of races, ethnicities, and nationalities makes the country better, more than seven in ten Democrats say yes. Fewer than three in ten Republicans agree. “In 2026,” Huffmon says, “a fight has broken out in the kitchen over what ingredients should go in the melting pot.”
The poll is a partnership between the Winthrop Poll and YouGov, the global research firm known for its online panels and its occasionally humbling precision. In a 2016 blind test by the Pew Research Center, YouGov was ranked the most accurate online pollster, and it has since earned similar marks in elections around the world. The current national survey includes 2,150 respondents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.11 percentage points overall, and higher margins for subgroups such as Southerners, non‑Southerners, and partisan “leaners.” The South, for the purposes of the poll, is defined narrowly as the eleven former Confederate states; the sample from any individual state is too small to support state‑level estimates. Full methodological details, in accordance with the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative, are provided with the results.
